* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 99 96 94 90 91 87 83 77 72 67 67 V (KT) LAND 105 101 99 96 94 90 91 87 83 77 72 67 67 V (KT) LGE mod 105 100 95 91 87 81 79 77 74 70 65 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 6 3 3 3 6 11 15 20 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 10 9 10 7 4 3 3 5 6 5 8 SHEAR DIR 316 337 296 294 330 255 268 293 270 284 264 259 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 139 138 136 135 134 132 130 130 128 127 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -49.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 54 54 52 53 50 50 49 55 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 38 37 37 37 41 41 42 43 43 42 43 850 MB ENV VOR 69 65 67 64 63 67 90 108 113 112 121 107 101 200 MB DIV 32 43 32 -2 -5 14 23 29 10 27 35 21 51 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 3 3 4 4 8 12 22 24 28 23 LAND (KM) 1539 1476 1413 1355 1298 1226 1178 1131 1089 1053 1030 988 949 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.8 21.8 22.7 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.0 141.6 142.1 142.6 143.2 143.6 144.0 144.4 144.8 145.2 145.9 146.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -26. -32. -37. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -14. -18. -22. -28. -33. -38. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##