* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 38 35 32 30 27 24 25 26 29 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 38 35 32 30 27 24 25 26 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 41 40 38 36 34 33 33 33 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 26 28 28 28 22 24 25 25 19 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -5 -2 -1 0 0 0 3 0 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 247 242 244 249 253 258 273 277 274 277 291 311 333 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 115 114 114 114 115 118 121 123 125 127 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 105 103 103 103 104 106 108 109 110 112 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 45 42 40 39 37 39 39 45 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 -1 -1 -5 -20 -22 -39 -29 -33 -41 -60 -65 200 MB DIV -5 -10 0 1 -15 0 0 -18 -17 -16 -25 -6 -18 700-850 TADV -1 1 5 5 0 4 1 0 1 1 3 5 4 LAND (KM) 1229 1309 1391 1465 1539 1690 1864 2050 2203 2334 2423 2478 2531 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.0 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.7 23.6 24.6 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.4 30.3 31.0 31.8 33.3 35.0 36.8 38.3 39.6 40.5 41.5 42.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 7 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 15 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -20. -19. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/02/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)