* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 93 90 90 84 82 77 71 65 62 62 V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 93 90 90 84 82 77 71 65 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 92 88 85 80 76 72 69 64 58 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 9 3 1 4 3 11 11 16 20 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 6 6 SHEAR DIR 299 288 301 318 53 268 295 284 268 275 269 281 274 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 137 136 135 134 133 131 129 129 127 125 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.2 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 55 54 53 54 52 52 53 53 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 35 34 38 38 41 41 41 41 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 63 64 65 60 56 66 80 84 94 90 103 90 83 200 MB DIV 46 33 10 -6 -5 4 29 21 27 37 58 22 36 700-850 TADV 9 5 2 2 3 6 6 11 21 24 35 35 29 LAND (KM) 1459 1396 1333 1292 1250 1191 1154 1109 1083 1056 1040 1031 1034 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 141.2 141.8 142.3 142.7 143.0 143.5 143.8 144.2 144.5 144.9 145.3 145.8 146.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -23. -28. -33. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 5. 9. 9. 10. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -16. -18. -23. -29. -35. -38. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##