* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 32 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 32 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 28 26 23 20 18 17 17 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 11 12 7 19 16 17 12 16 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -8 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 230 242 243 227 217 225 189 210 190 190 173 176 181 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 153 150 143 139 134 131 129 129 129 131 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 67 66 64 58 54 51 47 43 44 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 14 14 13 11 9 6 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 1 -6 0 2 -15 -3 -3 3 4 8 1 -8 200 MB DIV 41 42 28 41 63 39 33 5 20 29 36 35 31 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 3 5 1 -1 -3 0 -4 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1102 1029 960 896 839 708 547 415 317 260 221 182 135 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.3 19.0 20.5 21.6 22.4 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.7 114.9 115.2 115.4 115.4 114.9 114.4 114.0 113.8 113.6 113.4 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 58 45 37 27 16 10 6 5 4 2 2 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -2. -8. -13. -17. -18. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##