* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 32 28 27 25 23 22 24 27 32 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 32 28 27 25 23 22 24 27 32 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 34 32 30 29 29 28 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 27 29 29 28 26 19 18 21 18 13 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -1 1 -2 1 3 7 6 6 6 5 SHEAR DIR 241 243 251 259 261 277 283 272 275 277 298 336 39 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 114 114 114 115 116 119 122 125 126 129 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 105 103 103 103 104 104 107 109 112 112 113 115 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 41 39 36 37 35 41 40 42 43 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -6 -6 -8 -15 -24 -16 -29 -14 -23 -20 -43 -50 200 MB DIV -4 5 -5 -15 -10 -5 -12 -13 -8 -8 -31 2 -16 700-850 TADV 2 5 5 0 -1 2 0 2 4 3 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 1336 1413 1492 1566 1641 1793 1958 2122 2276 2348 2333 2379 2437 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.6 23.3 24.3 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 29.7 30.5 31.3 32.0 32.8 34.3 35.9 37.5 39.0 40.5 41.9 42.9 43.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 14 11 9 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -16. -13. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/02/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)