* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 61 63 66 62 61 58 58 56 51 49 48 V (KT) LAND 60 59 61 63 66 62 61 58 58 56 51 49 48 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 61 61 59 55 51 50 47 42 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 20 9 4 24 26 25 25 11 7 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -6 0 0 -5 0 2 2 1 -5 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 226 230 210 197 286 342 295 243 170 221 211 289 257 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.2 24.5 24.1 23.6 22.5 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 140 138 136 132 126 115 108 104 99 88 62 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 52 52 48 49 50 57 57 51 50 42 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 32 32 29 30 29 32 34 31 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 16 28 38 34 39 27 33 64 80 92 94 119 112 200 MB DIV 40 25 23 31 0 5 26 55 67 2 10 21 -4 700-850 TADV 10 19 18 18 9 7 4 16 5 4 5 10 6 LAND (KM) 407 413 424 474 544 712 934 1157 1393 1617 1835 1836 1567 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.5 27.1 28.3 29.8 31.7 34.0 36.0 37.7 39.8 42.3 LONG(DEG W) 155.7 156.8 157.9 158.9 159.8 161.8 163.6 164.4 164.4 164.9 166.2 166.7 166.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 5 6 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -17. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 3. 4. 3. 8. 10. 7. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 6. 2. 1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -11. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##