* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 91 88 86 80 79 74 70 66 61 56 55 V (KT) LAND 100 96 91 88 86 80 79 74 70 66 61 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 100 95 90 86 81 75 72 69 65 58 50 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 6 5 7 6 7 17 16 20 26 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 7 4 4 3 7 1 7 8 7 3 1 SHEAR DIR 294 296 291 213 226 243 243 256 268 257 265 260 271 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 136 135 134 133 131 130 129 126 124 121 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 53 51 52 49 49 50 57 56 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 34 34 36 36 39 40 40 41 41 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 56 51 64 86 102 103 98 100 89 69 57 200 MB DIV 30 -6 -21 -25 -19 22 4 19 30 29 26 39 25 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 7 5 4 10 16 24 29 33 26 28 LAND (KM) 1377 1318 1259 1224 1189 1154 1099 1082 1072 1069 1072 1080 1079 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.5 23.8 24.8 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.9 142.4 142.9 143.2 143.5 143.8 144.3 144.5 144.7 145.0 145.5 146.0 146.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 3 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -34. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 7. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -14. -20. -21. -26. -30. -34. -39. -44. -45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##