* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 31 29 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 31 29 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 13 11 9 17 16 15 14 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 239 219 214 228 179 194 182 185 175 171 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 153 151 147 141 137 132 128 125 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 66 61 58 56 53 47 47 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 13 12 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 11 15 7 -12 4 13 10 6 -2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 38 55 75 71 39 18 23 26 33 47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 4 4 4 -1 2 1 2 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1042 975 914 861 813 684 537 420 350 316 308 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.0 19.4 20.6 21.6 22.3 22.7 22.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.3 115.5 115.7 115.8 115.5 114.9 114.5 114.4 114.4 114.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 40 28 17 12 9 6 4 3 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -19. -19. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##