* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 32 29 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 32 29 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 35 34 32 30 28 26 25 24 24 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 28 27 30 25 26 26 28 20 14 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 2 0 -1 0 1 2 2 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 246 253 261 265 271 288 287 279 281 282 323 5 17 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 114 114 114 114 116 120 123 125 127 130 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 103 103 103 103 104 108 110 111 112 113 116 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 41 39 36 36 37 40 42 45 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -15 -16 -22 -26 -19 -29 -21 -20 -22 -35 -38 -34 200 MB DIV 5 -8 -26 -16 -8 -4 -18 -23 -16 -25 -8 8 -7 700-850 TADV 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 4 2 4 LAND (KM) 1415 1488 1561 1641 1722 1876 2009 2173 2346 2349 2385 2453 2442 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.4 23.0 23.9 25.0 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.3 32.0 32.8 33.6 35.1 36.4 38.0 39.7 41.1 42.0 42.8 43.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 10 14 10 8 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -14. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -25. -22. -17. -13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/02/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)