* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 63 62 61 61 62 60 53 46 41 35 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 63 62 61 61 62 60 53 46 41 35 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 62 62 58 56 55 52 45 37 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 10 6 16 16 16 26 26 17 10 15 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 0 -4 0 4 0 -3 2 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 230 210 196 258 323 310 262 175 193 181 247 251 241 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.6 24.8 24.3 23.6 22.5 19.3 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 135 133 131 126 119 111 107 99 88 63 63 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -53.2 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 47 47 48 51 56 51 50 50 48 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 32 30 29 29 32 35 34 30 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 25 39 34 40 32 22 38 50 77 70 51 32 24 200 MB DIV 23 15 26 -3 -34 24 38 83 37 -2 2 33 36 700-850 TADV 17 16 17 11 13 -1 15 12 7 8 13 16 15 LAND (KM) 463 487 535 606 690 858 1049 1275 1524 1799 1768 1449 1107 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.4 27.0 27.7 28.3 29.4 30.9 32.9 35.2 37.7 40.2 43.0 45.9 LONG(DEG W) 156.7 157.8 158.8 159.9 160.9 162.7 163.7 164.3 164.6 165.0 165.4 164.6 162.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 11 12 13 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 3 3 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -9. -14. -16. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 6. 10. 8. 3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. -7. -14. -19. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##