* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 88 86 84 80 75 72 67 63 58 55 52 V (KT) LAND 95 91 88 86 84 80 75 72 67 63 58 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 95 91 88 84 82 76 70 65 61 55 47 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 3 7 10 9 10 16 16 22 25 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 3 2 2 6 5 10 9 7 3 2 SHEAR DIR 314 326 270 248 255 273 274 267 277 261 272 265 276 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 136 135 134 133 132 130 128 126 124 121 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 51 51 50 49 48 50 52 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 36 37 38 39 41 41 41 40 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 72 61 51 65 71 82 91 106 101 103 94 85 67 200 MB DIV -1 -20 -23 -22 -1 25 16 35 28 38 22 30 -1 700-850 TADV 0 2 7 7 7 8 14 21 26 35 30 28 14 LAND (KM) 1312 1270 1228 1193 1159 1111 1088 1061 1033 1033 1064 1078 1106 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.6 24.0 25.2 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 142.5 142.9 143.2 143.5 143.8 144.2 144.4 144.7 145.1 145.4 145.7 146.3 146.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 10 11 9 7 5 4 4 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -15. -20. -23. -28. -32. -37. -40. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##