* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 35 32 28 23 19 17 17 18 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 35 32 28 23 19 17 17 18 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 30 27 24 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 10 9 15 14 11 7 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 1 -1 -4 0 -3 0 -1 -2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 199 192 207 201 173 198 184 164 193 177 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 149 147 144 140 137 132 128 124 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 67 62 59 58 52 47 45 45 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 17 16 14 12 10 6 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 14 17 14 1 5 4 14 13 7 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 55 74 63 41 30 7 17 25 27 22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 5 1 -1 0 1 -3 3 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 941 883 831 790 752 655 527 441 395 375 375 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.6 20.7 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.2 115.4 115.5 115.6 115.3 114.9 114.7 114.7 115.0 115.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 24 15 12 11 9 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##