* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 28 26 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 28 26 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 28 25 23 22 21 20 21 23 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 29 30 31 30 26 27 26 21 16 10 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 0 -3 2 1 2 3 4 2 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 256 264 267 276 283 287 280 278 282 302 312 328 260 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 114 114 115 115 119 122 125 126 129 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 103 103 103 104 106 108 110 111 112 114 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 43 41 41 39 37 38 37 43 41 47 51 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 13 11 11 8 9 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -14 -20 -21 -20 -30 -22 -32 -24 -46 -40 -53 200 MB DIV -8 -18 -17 -4 -6 -13 -21 -24 -10 -25 16 -2 7 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 5 4 0 2 4 4 6 3 6 0 LAND (KM) 1502 1581 1661 1742 1824 1967 2131 2273 2402 2407 2467 2481 2358 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.8 24.9 26.0 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.8 34.6 36.0 37.6 39.0 40.3 41.4 42.3 42.7 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 15 12 8 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -8. -8. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -16. -18. -21. -20. -17. -11. -6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/02/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)