* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 63 62 62 63 64 56 47 41 32 19 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 63 62 62 63 64 56 47 41 32 19 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 61 60 59 57 56 54 48 41 36 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 5 12 21 20 21 28 24 17 18 33 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -4 -8 2 1 3 1 -5 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 206 179 218 308 330 292 227 183 172 203 262 236 229 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.0 24.5 23.8 22.9 20.5 17.0 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 131 127 122 113 109 102 92 68 63 63 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.7 -54.5 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 47 47 47 50 54 53 46 44 41 44 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 29 29 30 31 34 33 31 30 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 45 33 28 32 57 66 90 76 73 33 -20 200 MB DIV 32 24 -1 -27 3 34 80 103 10 8 17 11 41 700-850 TADV 18 13 7 12 11 3 15 7 6 7 15 5 -1 LAND (KM) 494 546 623 701 789 958 1165 1424 1722 1813 1507 1192 867 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.1 27.8 28.4 29.0 30.2 32.0 34.3 37.0 39.7 42.4 45.1 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 157.7 158.8 159.9 160.9 161.9 163.2 163.8 164.4 164.9 164.8 164.1 162.6 160.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 9 9 11 13 14 14 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 3 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -15. -20. -26. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. -4. -13. -19. -28. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##