* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 83 82 79 74 76 71 66 61 58 55 53 V (KT) LAND 90 86 83 82 79 74 76 71 66 61 58 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 90 86 83 79 76 70 68 64 59 52 45 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 11 9 8 14 17 19 26 26 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 3 1 3 3 0 3 8 5 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 324 296 267 265 265 258 264 267 259 256 249 254 257 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 136 135 134 132 130 129 127 125 123 121 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 51 51 47 46 45 52 53 55 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 34 35 35 34 39 39 38 39 39 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 56 35 45 64 70 74 93 94 97 84 68 55 50 200 MB DIV -12 -13 -15 -6 9 10 -5 33 32 32 31 21 9 700-850 TADV 1 7 6 5 4 4 12 19 26 29 30 22 15 LAND (KM) 1256 1220 1184 1160 1136 1089 1068 1057 1058 1060 1077 1068 1045 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.5 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.3 24.6 25.6 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 143.0 143.3 143.6 143.8 144.0 144.4 144.6 144.8 145.0 145.4 145.9 146.7 147.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 11 11 8 6 4 4 4 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 10. 10. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -11. -16. -14. -19. -24. -29. -32. -35. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##