* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 31 30 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 31 30 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 8 6 9 14 13 11 11 5 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 211 220 210 179 190 181 185 173 224 203 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 147 145 142 139 136 130 126 122 118 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 64 61 59 54 50 44 43 44 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 18 17 2 -6 6 7 11 11 0 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 76 66 46 33 17 21 10 32 29 40 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 0 -1 1 1 0 1 -1 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 885 832 784 736 692 596 488 416 376 369 397 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.0 20.0 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.1 115.2 115.2 115.2 114.9 114.7 114.6 114.8 115.2 115.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 18 13 11 10 8 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -16. -19. -19. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##