* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 28 27 25 23 22 23 27 32 36 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 28 27 25 23 22 23 27 32 36 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 30 29 27 26 24 23 23 24 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 30 30 27 26 27 25 18 12 6 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 -3 -2 3 2 5 2 2 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 265 268 278 283 288 279 271 278 297 331 321 298 226 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 115 116 119 122 125 126 128 131 132 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 103 104 104 108 109 110 110 112 113 112 111 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 43 41 39 38 37 37 40 44 46 51 59 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -23 -34 -32 -23 -38 -36 -39 -38 -48 -20 -22 -41 200 MB DIV -19 -19 -7 -11 -16 -15 -9 -12 -16 -4 13 0 -14 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 4 0 2 2 0 4 7 2 5 -1 LAND (KM) 1591 1671 1752 1834 1916 2090 2272 2402 2418 2472 2488 2380 2293 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.7 26.1 27.1 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 32.3 33.1 33.9 34.7 35.5 37.2 39.0 40.3 41.2 41.8 42.2 42.3 42.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 7 6 5 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 15 13 9 9 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -8. -3. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/03/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)