* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 67 67 67 71 68 63 55 47 35 19 V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 67 67 67 71 68 63 55 47 35 19 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 68 68 67 66 61 54 47 36 26 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 13 16 10 13 18 12 18 24 30 38 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -3 2 2 0 0 3 0 6 3 3 SHEAR DIR 192 248 316 326 295 215 165 208 202 227 232 239 242 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.1 24.5 23.9 23.0 20.8 17.8 15.3 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 128 125 114 109 103 94 70 62 62 62 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 49 50 53 54 50 48 48 48 49 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 29 29 29 29 34 32 33 32 32 30 26 850 MB ENV VOR 42 38 28 18 17 55 80 88 71 71 67 63 37 200 MB DIV 36 -19 -17 21 38 70 87 34 1 40 24 26 11 700-850 TADV 21 17 12 12 3 16 7 19 15 28 23 17 -10 LAND (KM) 545 612 692 793 899 1137 1380 1674 1808 1514 1256 991 723 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.7 28.3 29.1 29.8 31.8 34.0 36.7 39.7 42.3 44.5 46.8 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 159.0 160.0 161.0 161.9 162.7 163.6 164.0 164.3 164.4 163.8 162.4 161.0 159.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 13 14 14 13 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 1 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -23. -27. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 0. -3. -9. -16. -24. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 6. 3. -2. -10. -18. -30. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##