* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 85 83 83 77 69 65 60 54 50 50 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 85 83 83 77 69 65 60 54 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 90 87 84 81 78 75 71 65 57 50 42 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 9 5 8 14 17 19 22 26 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 1 2 4 3 3 8 11 8 5 0 3 SHEAR DIR 257 274 262 266 255 279 267 272 248 256 255 266 253 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 135 134 134 133 130 129 128 127 125 124 122 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 51 51 50 49 51 57 57 57 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 34 35 35 39 39 38 39 40 38 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 53 64 70 82 84 98 104 103 94 86 81 70 58 200 MB DIV 2 -1 -6 -2 15 -4 32 28 58 37 51 16 17 700-850 TADV 5 6 2 1 2 9 18 27 37 34 30 16 8 LAND (KM) 1217 1181 1146 1123 1101 1057 1022 1007 1010 1003 997 993 1005 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.5 24.7 25.9 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 143.3 143.6 143.9 144.1 144.3 144.7 145.1 145.4 145.6 146.1 146.9 147.9 149.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 4 5 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 7. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -13. -21. -25. -30. -36. -40. -40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##