* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 30 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 30 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 18 17 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 10 5 9 12 13 14 13 12 8 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -4 0 -2 -2 1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 240 228 180 169 191 185 204 216 237 191 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 144 142 139 134 129 123 120 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 63 62 61 56 50 46 45 49 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 13 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 -2 -6 2 6 16 14 7 6 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 66 54 57 40 32 36 18 26 37 44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 0 0 1 -1 2 1 4 1 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 864 806 752 702 654 542 444 380 375 396 434 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.1 115.1 115.1 115.0 114.6 114.4 114.6 115.1 115.6 116.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 15 12 11 10 7 5 3 1 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -19. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##