* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 30 26 23 18 17 17 20 24 28 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 30 26 23 18 17 17 20 24 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 30 28 25 23 22 21 22 25 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 32 31 30 29 32 33 28 22 15 20 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 0 3 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 267 274 280 284 283 278 282 291 311 333 318 264 259 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 114 115 117 120 123 125 127 129 132 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 102 104 105 108 110 110 111 114 115 111 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 41 40 38 38 39 36 42 43 50 54 65 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 8 8 6 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -26 -26 -18 -24 -32 -26 -35 -39 -62 -31 -31 -27 200 MB DIV -26 -16 -11 -15 -18 -22 -29 -21 -29 21 7 10 2 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 -1 0 2 1 2 6 4 11 -1 6 LAND (KM) 1651 1721 1792 1880 1967 2140 2303 2381 2396 2496 2440 2324 2257 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.8 25.0 26.8 28.0 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.9 33.6 34.3 35.1 36.0 37.7 39.3 40.7 41.6 41.9 41.5 41.3 41.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 8 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 15 11 8 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. -17. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -12. -17. -18. -18. -15. -11. -7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/03/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/03/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)