* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 92 90 87 81 72 64 57 51 46 40 39 V (KT) LAND 95 94 92 90 87 81 72 64 57 51 46 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 95 94 92 89 86 78 69 60 53 45 38 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 8 10 12 12 20 25 23 26 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 1 1 0 3 8 7 3 5 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 277 264 263 265 283 278 273 258 252 247 252 263 255 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 134 134 132 131 130 129 126 124 123 121 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 53 52 52 51 56 54 56 54 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 35 36 38 37 38 37 36 35 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 51 57 71 71 74 86 78 71 77 66 55 46 35 200 MB DIV -7 -6 0 7 20 -4 50 31 44 28 10 1 3 700-850 TADV 7 5 1 1 3 11 18 31 28 24 17 13 7 LAND (KM) 1193 1164 1135 1117 1100 1068 1050 1035 1023 1022 991 991 1007 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.9 20.5 21.6 23.1 24.4 25.3 26.6 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 143.5 143.8 144.0 144.2 144.3 144.6 144.8 145.1 145.7 146.4 147.4 148.6 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 8 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -16. -22. -26. -31. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -23. -31. -38. -44. -49. -55. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##