* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 34 30 24 21 19 20 26 33 39 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 34 30 24 21 19 20 26 33 39 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 38 37 33 29 26 25 26 29 36 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 32 33 36 37 32 25 18 10 11 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 1 0 1 0 2 -1 -1 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 273 282 283 283 281 286 291 302 331 325 263 235 229 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 116 117 118 122 124 125 128 130 133 130 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 104 104 105 106 109 110 110 112 113 114 110 107 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 39 36 37 43 46 51 58 60 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 8 11 14 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -35 -30 -36 -42 -35 -43 -32 -41 -16 0 -2 10 200 MB DIV -7 -3 -19 -19 -23 -25 -17 -27 7 10 22 -1 7 700-850 TADV 6 6 0 0 2 1 1 4 6 2 6 0 5 LAND (KM) 1731 1812 1895 1977 2058 2242 2392 2418 2487 2512 2368 2283 2251 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.8 24.8 26.0 27.5 28.6 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 34.5 35.3 36.1 36.9 38.7 40.2 41.2 41.7 41.8 41.5 40.8 39.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 6 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 0 5 15 13 9 8 6 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -19. -21. -20. -14. -7. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/03/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED