* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 62 62 64 63 59 47 38 31 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 62 62 64 63 59 47 38 31 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 64 63 62 60 55 48 39 32 26 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 18 17 16 24 14 17 11 17 34 46 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -1 7 4 -4 -1 2 0 2 6 7 6 SHEAR DIR 315 332 298 257 215 162 187 205 219 252 245 250 248 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.3 23.6 22.9 20.1 16.6 14.2 13.5 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 122 116 112 107 100 92 63 63 65 67 68 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.7 -53.7 -54.4 -55.3 -54.7 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 56 54 49 48 47 46 47 47 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 30 30 33 33 33 28 27 27 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 23 10 15 42 68 90 87 51 31 17 27 82 38 200 MB DIV -21 14 31 35 63 53 28 4 13 24 45 19 29 700-850 TADV 16 10 3 10 21 12 10 15 7 16 17 22 -70 LAND (KM) 705 828 954 1088 1221 1491 1773 1730 1442 1139 849 804 596 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 29.4 30.3 31.5 32.6 35.0 37.7 40.3 42.9 45.5 48.1 50.5 52.9 LONG(DEG W) 161.1 162.0 162.8 163.2 163.6 164.2 164.0 163.5 163.3 161.7 158.7 151.6 141.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 15 21 30 33 HEAT CONTENT 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -21. -26. -29. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -20. -30. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 20. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 5. 5. -1. -3. -3. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. -2. -6. -18. -27. -34. -43. -58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##