* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 92 89 84 75 65 60 51 46 41 37 33 V (KT) LAND 95 94 92 89 84 75 65 60 51 46 41 37 33 V (KT) LGE mod 95 94 92 87 82 71 63 54 45 38 32 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 13 15 12 16 16 25 26 24 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 2 9 10 13 4 2 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 273 276 279 294 287 280 268 251 263 259 277 272 283 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 134 132 132 131 129 127 125 123 123 122 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -50.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 50 50 52 54 56 55 54 56 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 35 36 35 35 35 36 34 33 32 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 64 74 74 75 79 75 64 67 60 55 44 38 29 200 MB DIV -1 -2 -10 1 1 43 43 57 27 31 -20 0 -19 700-850 TADV 9 4 3 3 11 22 22 38 26 32 12 8 1 LAND (KM) 1147 1119 1090 1073 1057 1048 1024 998 1003 1006 990 971 925 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.2 21.0 22.1 23.5 24.7 25.4 26.2 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 143.9 144.2 144.4 144.5 144.7 144.8 145.1 145.6 146.1 146.8 147.5 148.5 149.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 5 4 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. -27. -31. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -11. -20. -30. -35. -44. -49. -54. -58. -62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##