* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142015 09/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 50 46 40 34 28 22 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 50 46 40 34 28 22 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 53 54 53 48 42 37 32 28 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 13 13 13 9 12 14 20 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 207 188 198 210 203 208 230 246 225 225 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 141 139 134 130 126 122 120 118 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 57 55 50 48 46 46 46 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 11 9 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 12 9 2 8 5 2 1 9 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 38 37 44 32 14 8 21 25 22 25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 5 1 6 5 12 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 829 786 746 696 641 558 534 567 641 747 853 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.8 21.4 21.8 22.0 22.0 21.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.6 115.6 116.0 116.8 117.8 119.0 120.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 10 9 8 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -29. -31. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 KEVIN 09/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 KEVIN 09/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##