* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 28 26 23 18 18 19 23 30 35 39 V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 28 26 23 18 18 19 23 30 35 39 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 27 24 21 19 19 21 25 30 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 33 34 37 38 35 25 17 7 9 20 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 -1 1 2 4 0 0 -2 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 279 279 278 277 279 285 294 325 322 245 216 222 222 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 118 119 121 124 126 128 131 132 131 126 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 106 107 109 111 112 112 114 114 113 109 104 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 39 38 37 35 34 42 40 49 52 53 46 38 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 12 9 9 7 7 9 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -36 -41 -48 -49 -40 -36 -31 -26 -16 -14 -29 -31 200 MB DIV -5 -19 -19 -19 -19 -21 -13 -24 11 -11 8 -6 -26 700-850 TADV 7 4 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 3 -7 -13 -7 LAND (KM) 1854 1946 2038 2124 2211 2384 2362 2432 2523 2408 2306 2212 2131 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.5 24.6 25.7 27.0 28.3 29.8 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 35.8 36.7 37.5 38.4 40.1 41.7 42.4 42.4 41.8 41.0 39.7 38.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 4 14 11 8 10 7 5 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -17. -16. -12. -5. 0. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/03/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED