* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 09/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 22 26 36 47 57 64 72 76 80 82 V (KT) LAND 15 16 18 22 26 36 47 57 64 72 76 80 82 V (KT) LGE mod 15 15 16 17 19 23 28 35 44 56 67 74 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 12 13 8 9 4 2 1 6 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 1 6 2 7 6 6 7 0 3 SHEAR DIR 49 52 51 53 59 47 23 4 337 197 217 245 255 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 140 143 142 146 144 137 136 138 139 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 143 145 149 147 151 148 139 137 139 141 138 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 66 67 68 72 75 73 66 65 58 56 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 10 11 12 12 11 12 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 3 3 12 12 38 40 36 39 29 17 9 200 MB DIV 33 26 37 36 27 28 23 17 -13 -24 -15 2 19 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -2 -4 -10 -12 -14 -11 -8 -7 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 40 165 233 374 531 870 1187 1492 1789 1824 1578 1360 1168 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 15.3 16.8 18.4 19.9 21.5 24.7 27.9 30.9 33.8 36.7 39.5 42.2 45.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 16 15 14 14 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 7 8 11 14 12 10 10 18 15 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 20. 26. 32. 36. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 21. 32. 42. 49. 57. 61. 65. 67. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 09/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 09/03/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)