* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 56 59 61 61 55 43 35 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 56 59 61 61 55 43 35 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 57 56 55 53 49 43 35 28 22 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 20 18 21 27 12 16 12 24 34 46 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 4 7 0 -5 0 0 0 6 6 4 3 SHEAR DIR 335 306 277 234 200 169 203 213 215 248 243 246 252 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.4 21.6 18.6 16.0 14.3 13.5 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 124 120 114 111 106 98 79 63 64 66 67 68 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.8 -53.9 -55.2 -55.3 -54.9 -53.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 51 52 52 50 46 46 44 49 49 47 45 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 30 31 33 33 32 28 27 25 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 11 19 34 57 88 81 76 46 20 15 10 60 69 200 MB DIV 3 23 34 79 72 44 0 0 15 36 10 13 8 700-850 TADV 9 10 13 18 12 8 8 15 2 8 6 -6 4 LAND (KM) 806 923 1042 1187 1331 1616 1894 1652 1348 1056 877 917 327 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.0 30.8 32.1 33.3 35.9 38.5 41.2 43.8 46.2 48.4 51.3 54.7 LONG(DEG W) 162.1 163.0 163.8 164.3 164.7 165.2 165.4 165.0 163.7 160.4 155.1 147.5 138.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 15 19 25 30 32 HEAT CONTENT 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -20. -24. -26. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -24. -35. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 19. 23. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 5. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -1. 1. 1. -5. -17. -25. -36. -49. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##