* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 09/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 42 51 58 62 66 68 70 72 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 42 51 58 62 66 68 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 26 31 39 47 55 61 64 64 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 12 11 4 4 5 5 8 9 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 1 4 5 5 7 5 6 7 2 8 SHEAR DIR 53 50 55 59 61 4 347 274 258 246 244 266 259 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 142 143 143 143 147 140 134 132 135 136 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 147 148 147 147 150 142 133 131 133 133 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 69 70 73 73 69 65 62 59 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 12 12 12 11 13 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 4 2 4 13 8 28 35 32 29 29 15 3 2 200 MB DIV 27 37 36 29 28 23 28 -5 -14 -20 0 -12 16 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -3 -6 -11 -10 -10 -6 -5 -8 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 166 234 372 531 694 1006 1275 1573 1856 1826 1636 1463 1349 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 16.9 18.4 20.0 21.6 23.1 26.2 29.0 31.9 34.6 37.3 39.7 42.1 44.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 11 12 12 11 10 13 14 10 10 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 22. 31. 38. 42. 46. 48. 50. 52. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 09/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 09/04/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)