* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 59 61 60 59 51 41 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 59 61 60 59 51 41 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 57 56 55 50 45 38 31 24 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 14 21 27 15 19 16 27 35 45 54 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 9 2 -5 -1 3 2 3 7 5 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 308 283 231 191 176 203 211 257 244 258 268 251 262 SST (C) 26.1 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.4 23.6 22.2 18.9 16.0 14.0 13.9 14.9 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 119 114 110 108 100 86 63 64 66 67 65 65 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -53.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -53.8 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 50 51 50 47 47 45 47 50 46 41 39 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 32 34 32 32 31 30 29 26 22 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 27 49 77 82 82 60 41 35 40 58 39 29 200 MB DIV 4 24 73 79 48 7 5 26 33 22 8 15 13 700-850 TADV 15 8 13 14 12 5 18 18 16 9 14 -67 14 LAND (KM) 916 1041 1165 1322 1479 1788 1702 1387 1086 867 993 595 171 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 31.0 32.0 33.4 34.8 37.7 40.7 43.5 46.0 48.2 50.3 52.0 53.3 LONG(DEG W) 162.9 163.4 163.8 164.2 164.5 164.6 164.7 164.1 161.9 156.5 147.8 140.1 133.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 15 15 15 14 18 26 28 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -24. -27. -30. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -5. -12. -23. -36. -49. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 21. 24. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -5. -10. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. -9. -19. -30. -46. -64.-100. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##