* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 77 74 70 64 56 51 47 41 36 31 30 V (KT) LAND 85 81 77 74 70 64 56 51 47 41 36 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 85 81 76 72 68 60 52 44 38 33 28 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 13 13 14 20 19 28 23 23 18 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 3 6 6 11 1 5 2 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 277 288 281 268 258 257 241 257 251 268 266 286 294 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 126 124 123 123 122 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -50.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 49 51 51 53 54 52 53 52 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 34 34 34 35 34 35 35 34 32 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 82 86 84 92 85 65 62 58 51 40 37 36 39 200 MB DIV 0 1 -6 6 24 32 56 26 51 2 0 -34 -21 700-850 TADV 6 4 7 10 16 19 28 28 22 16 3 1 -5 LAND (KM) 1102 1079 1057 1036 1017 997 978 971 962 952 934 895 841 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.3 21.2 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 144.3 144.5 144.7 144.9 145.1 145.4 145.8 146.3 147.1 147.8 148.4 149.2 150.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 5 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -21. -29. -34. -38. -44. -49. -54. -55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##