* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142015 09/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 52 48 38 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 52 48 38 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 50 46 37 29 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 22 25 21 20 22 24 30 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 1 -1 -2 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 209 213 217 216 238 231 246 224 230 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 135 131 127 123 119 116 113 113 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 54 49 45 39 36 38 37 41 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 14 10 7 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 11 16 20 6 3 2 8 14 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 36 28 35 33 -6 17 23 12 21 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 4 8 2 5 3 6 7 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 709 635 564 520 481 521 582 648 724 791 849 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.8 115.7 115.8 115.9 116.7 117.5 118.4 119.5 120.5 121.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. -1. -12. -23. -34. -43. -50. -57. -60. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##