* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 27 26 26 27 32 33 35 39 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 27 26 26 27 32 33 35 39 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 30 27 25 24 25 28 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 35 38 38 37 27 22 14 18 30 32 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 2 4 3 0 -1 -4 -6 -7 -10 SHEAR DIR 276 273 276 279 282 290 310 330 276 246 246 238 247 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 121 124 124 126 129 132 134 132 125 120 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 109 111 111 111 113 116 117 115 109 102 99 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 38 36 35 36 38 38 46 52 51 43 40 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 9 9 7 7 11 11 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -55 -49 -37 -35 -39 -28 -22 -29 -37 -61 -91 -87 200 MB DIV -18 -20 -19 -28 -24 -11 -24 2 -15 -4 -8 -15 -1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 1 0 0 2 -1 3 -1 -2 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 2050 2141 2233 2325 2354 2319 2379 2502 2387 2273 2220 2173 2138 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.6 23.1 24.1 25.4 27.1 28.7 30.1 31.4 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 36.8 37.7 38.6 39.5 40.4 41.8 42.5 42.6 42.1 40.8 38.9 37.4 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 8 9 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 4 3 9 14 11 9 9 8 4 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -9. -8. -3. -2. 0. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/04/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)