* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 09/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 53 59 66 69 69 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 53 59 66 69 69 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 54 63 68 68 67 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 14 12 11 7 4 4 5 6 13 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 5 4 4 5 5 4 10 3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 47 37 38 41 39 4 336 281 263 247 248 239 244 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 143 143 143 142 145 138 131 128 129 128 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 144 147 147 146 145 148 137 128 124 123 122 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 67 70 71 68 63 61 56 57 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 12 11 12 14 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 4 3 4 26 27 17 16 5 -4 0 -10 200 MB DIV 44 42 40 33 14 11 9 9 4 16 6 32 30 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -9 -11 -13 -11 -8 -5 -8 -9 -5 0 -5 LAND (KM) 218 334 476 631 789 1059 1323 1585 1834 1946 1812 1727 1666 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.4 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 18.1 19.6 21.0 22.5 24.0 26.8 29.5 32.1 34.5 36.8 38.8 40.5 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 14 13 12 11 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 9 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 28. 34. 41. 44. 44. 44. 45. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 09/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 09/04/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)