* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 63 62 58 47 38 28 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 64 63 62 58 47 38 28 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 66 64 61 53 45 36 28 21 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 20 24 22 11 13 16 28 37 35 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 0 -7 -7 0 3 2 6 4 7 7 8 SHEAR DIR 275 201 178 172 176 212 241 257 255 250 258 261 275 SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.3 21.0 17.0 14.4 13.7 14.6 14.2 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 119 114 110 108 105 97 74 64 65 67 67 65 64 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -53.3 -53.8 -54.9 -54.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 50 48 47 47 43 52 50 44 48 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 33 35 33 33 31 28 26 24 20 14 2 850 MB ENV VOR 29 51 83 84 84 75 44 12 9 64 71 75 76 200 MB DIV 33 80 77 39 26 -2 8 20 27 10 23 21 16 700-850 TADV 8 15 15 9 4 12 16 -2 6 -12 5 -8 93 LAND (KM) 1034 1165 1297 1448 1599 1896 1550 1189 873 831 605 78 -331 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.1 33.3 34.7 36.0 38.9 42.0 45.1 47.9 50.4 52.5 54.2 55.6 LONG(DEG W) 163.3 163.5 163.7 164.0 164.3 164.4 164.0 162.3 158.4 151.2 141.0 132.7 126.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 18 23 30 30 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -24. -31. -34. -36. -39. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. -2. -9. -20. -32. -41. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 20. 25. 30. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 5. 5. 4. -2. -3. -6. -12. -21. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -18. -27. -37. -49. -66. -86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##