* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 72 67 64 56 51 46 41 37 31 24 21 V (KT) LAND 80 75 72 67 64 56 51 46 41 37 31 24 21 V (KT) LGE mod 80 76 71 67 63 55 48 41 36 32 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 15 16 22 24 25 22 24 23 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 7 7 8 8 3 7 2 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 281 281 277 264 259 249 247 254 252 273 279 294 298 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 130 131 130 128 127 125 124 123 122 125 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 51 50 52 50 53 52 53 50 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 34 33 34 33 33 33 31 31 30 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 91 86 90 88 84 71 63 59 44 45 29 34 33 200 MB DIV 6 -8 -5 5 15 32 26 16 -4 -2 -34 -28 -38 700-850 TADV 6 9 12 13 14 23 23 22 11 5 0 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 1068 1047 1026 1017 1009 975 967 959 948 928 912 849 760 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 21.6 22.9 23.9 24.6 25.2 25.8 25.8 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 144.6 144.8 145.0 145.1 145.2 145.7 146.2 146.8 147.4 148.1 148.9 149.7 150.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 4 2 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -13. -16. -24. -29. -34. -39. -43. -49. -56. -59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##