* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142015 09/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 48 44 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 48 44 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 50 47 43 35 28 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 26 25 21 21 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 207 210 219 227 236 228 224 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.3 25.0 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 132 129 124 120 114 111 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 50 45 40 36 35 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 13 11 7 5 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 11 16 19 10 7 5 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 36 36 14 0 8 24 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 8 9 7 6 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 652 588 528 499 476 517 543 610 723 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.4 23.5 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.8 115.8 116.0 116.1 116.9 117.7 118.8 120.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -15. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -2. -6. -17. -28. -38. -47. -52. -57. -60. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##