* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 29 27 25 28 32 36 41 45 47 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 29 27 25 28 32 36 41 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 29 26 24 25 28 33 38 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 37 38 38 33 22 17 7 15 26 25 25 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 5 2 2 0 0 -4 -7 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 276 275 276 280 285 298 331 301 246 234 226 229 220 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 123 124 125 127 130 133 134 130 125 120 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 110 112 111 112 114 117 116 113 108 102 99 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 36 34 36 38 39 41 48 51 46 42 39 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 10 12 13 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -50 -37 -38 -43 -32 -23 -14 -9 -28 -32 -47 -39 200 MB DIV -8 -18 -31 -27 -23 -33 -4 -8 -13 -3 -1 11 13 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 0 0 2 2 -2 3 -5 -5 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 2162 2249 2336 2354 2334 2331 2423 2463 2343 2273 2269 2214 2120 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.5 24.7 26.2 27.7 29.0 29.9 31.2 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 37.9 38.8 39.6 40.4 41.2 42.3 42.8 42.6 41.6 40.1 38.3 37.0 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 16 16 17 20 23 26 12 11 9 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -7. -3. 1. 6. 10. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/04/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)