* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 09/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 49 55 59 58 56 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 49 55 59 58 56 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 42 48 54 57 56 54 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 3 2 4 10 13 14 18 22 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 9 10 10 4 2 3 3 3 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 33 32 43 11 329 291 267 253 247 239 248 236 243 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 145 145 142 142 139 131 126 125 125 125 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 149 149 144 143 139 129 122 119 119 116 117 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 69 68 67 63 59 56 54 53 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 13 16 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 2 4 6 13 23 24 19 2 -6 -11 -20 -12 -15 200 MB DIV 52 52 32 21 22 7 14 28 8 16 1 10 14 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -8 -9 -7 -3 -5 -4 -4 -5 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 314 448 589 726 852 1105 1381 1654 1921 2012 1909 1856 1794 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.8 22.2 23.6 25.0 27.6 30.3 32.9 35.4 37.6 39.7 41.5 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 14 11 8 8 8 15 11 15 14 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 24. 30. 34. 33. 31. 28. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 09/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 09/04/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)