* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 63 62 60 52 43 35 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 63 62 60 52 43 35 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 65 63 60 52 42 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 20 24 20 8 10 11 12 26 36 42 42 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 -1 -5 -5 0 0 2 3 6 6 2 4 5 SHEAR DIR 227 167 164 176 192 238 252 259 260 256 262 274 292 SST (C) 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.2 23.8 22.6 19.6 16.6 14.8 14.1 15.5 14.8 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 108 106 102 90 63 64 66 67 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.3 -53.1 -53.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 47 46 47 45 49 51 47 40 45 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 36 34 33 33 29 25 24 21 16 14 6 850 MB ENV VOR 44 74 85 86 84 75 38 10 0 36 77 55 4 200 MB DIV 68 72 70 31 12 16 -5 22 20 -2 12 2 0 700-850 TADV 11 8 5 6 14 5 5 -2 0 -16 -18 13 20 LAND (KM) 1152 1291 1431 1575 1719 1757 1411 1123 937 1019 436 44 -180 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.1 34.4 35.7 37.0 40.2 43.2 45.6 47.8 50.1 52.7 53.2 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 164.0 164.2 164.3 164.6 164.8 164.7 163.5 160.6 155.2 147.6 137.9 130.7 125.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 15 16 16 18 25 30 27 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -27. -33. -36. -38. -41. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 1. -5. -15. -28. -38. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 21. 25. 31. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. -2. -7. -9. -14. -21. -24. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -22. -30. -42. -58. -70. -92. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##