* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 64 60 55 50 45 41 37 35 29 25 18 V (KT) LAND 75 69 64 60 55 50 45 41 37 35 29 25 18 V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 66 62 59 52 45 39 35 31 27 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 17 19 16 26 20 20 18 23 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 4 5 4 9 1 3 3 3 4 8 5 SHEAR DIR 287 273 269 272 266 251 266 260 274 282 300 311 316 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 132 131 131 129 128 127 126 126 126 128 128 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 50 50 53 53 54 57 56 56 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 32 33 31 33 33 32 30 30 28 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR 86 87 87 87 72 63 56 43 34 29 25 21 19 200 MB DIV 9 0 0 12 25 47 13 11 -5 -3 -32 -29 -37 700-850 TADV 10 11 13 14 17 23 24 21 8 5 3 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1036 1015 995 978 963 935 919 905 861 800 716 640 588 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.0 22.0 23.3 24.3 24.8 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.1 145.3 145.5 145.7 146.2 146.9 147.7 148.6 149.6 150.6 151.4 151.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 4 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 3 2 1 1 4 4 4 6 6 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -20. -25. -30. -34. -38. -40. -46. -50. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##