* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 23 21 19 21 25 29 34 40 43 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 23 21 19 21 25 29 34 40 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 25 23 21 19 18 18 20 23 27 31 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 41 41 39 35 29 20 16 13 20 22 26 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 4 3 2 0 -1 -2 -5 -7 -9 -11 SHEAR DIR 275 275 281 291 297 320 343 303 253 250 243 247 242 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 124 125 126 128 131 131 129 125 122 117 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 111 112 112 112 115 116 114 109 107 104 97 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 34 36 38 39 40 47 52 50 43 37 33 32 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 9 9 7 7 9 10 10 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -38 -38 -48 -50 -37 -35 -38 -26 -27 -29 -32 -28 200 MB DIV -11 -25 -25 -20 -21 -34 5 -17 -3 -6 -9 -3 19 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -1 1 3 -2 4 -7 -2 -7 -6 -21 LAND (KM) 2243 2325 2342 2347 2354 2393 2530 2451 2347 2191 2032 1865 1778 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.9 23.3 24.3 25.4 27.0 28.6 29.9 30.8 32.6 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 38.7 39.5 40.3 40.9 41.5 42.6 42.0 40.7 39.1 37.0 34.8 32.2 29.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 8 10 11 11 12 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 17 18 22 21 13 13 8 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -9. -5. -1. 4. 10. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/04/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)