* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 09/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 51 57 62 63 63 62 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 51 57 62 63 63 62 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 53 59 61 60 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 5 6 2 4 4 8 11 11 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 3 5 8 5 5 7 5 10 6 8 SHEAR DIR 43 48 35 10 12 19 254 213 215 249 236 231 223 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 144 145 139 134 131 133 133 131 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 146 145 146 146 140 133 128 129 128 125 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 70 70 68 62 60 55 54 50 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 15 15 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 15 30 33 37 33 25 20 10 4 -6 -21 200 MB DIV 52 44 40 30 24 11 -1 -3 0 0 28 21 4 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -8 -10 -10 -11 -3 -5 -3 -5 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 504 661 820 955 1090 1338 1605 1878 1853 1683 1571 1481 1416 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.7 14.3 14.7 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 21.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 27.1 29.6 32.2 34.8 37.2 39.4 41.4 43.2 44.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 12 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 11 7 7 9 12 23 16 12 10 16 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 26. 32. 37. 38. 38. 37. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 09/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 09/04/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)