* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 56 54 53 47 37 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 56 54 53 47 37 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 53 49 42 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 21 9 4 10 12 20 35 47 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -6 -1 -1 2 1 5 4 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 158 172 224 208 250 260 247 247 257 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.2 23.8 23.3 21.7 18.4 15.9 14.5 14.3 16.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 106 102 97 81 62 63 65 68 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -54.5 -54.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 48 46 46 53 50 45 39 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 36 34 33 31 27 26 24 21 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 88 88 82 78 38 8 -2 0 15 57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 76 41 -3 -3 12 6 22 6 -12 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 2 5 8 8 7 -6 -7 1 -4 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1310 1450 1590 1746 1902 1576 1283 1035 903 1060 366 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.6 35.8 37.3 38.7 41.7 44.2 46.4 48.2 50.0 51.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.1 164.4 164.7 164.8 164.9 163.5 161.7 159.1 154.9 146.9 135.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 15 22 33 37 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -26. -32. -34. -35. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -8. -22. -36. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. 28. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -7. -13. -23. -30. -40. -53. -67. -73. -79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##