* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 59 54 51 45 41 37 37 34 31 25 19 V (KT) LAND 70 64 59 54 51 45 41 37 37 34 31 25 19 V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 62 58 54 46 40 34 31 28 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 22 22 20 23 17 22 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 8 9 7 1 1 0 7 4 8 0 SHEAR DIR 279 275 267 260 252 258 256 255 281 280 296 292 306 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 130 130 129 128 128 126 125 128 129 129 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 50 52 50 55 55 54 53 53 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 33 33 33 33 32 31 31 30 29 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 89 88 95 86 76 78 59 54 40 41 42 38 32 200 MB DIV 8 5 26 34 48 19 7 -1 -11 -14 -16 -37 -21 700-850 TADV 15 15 16 22 22 21 14 9 8 -3 -4 -10 -5 LAND (KM) 1005 985 966 950 938 904 872 833 785 715 640 589 564 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.3 22.5 23.6 24.5 25.0 25.0 24.7 24.7 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 145.2 145.4 145.6 145.8 146.0 146.7 147.6 148.7 149.8 150.7 151.4 152.1 152.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 5 3 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 3 1 1 2 5 6 7 4 5 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -19. -25. -29. -33. -33. -36. -39. -45. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##