* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142015 09/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 38 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 38 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 44 40 36 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 25 26 25 23 23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 0 2 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 211 222 233 238 236 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 123 121 118 115 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 47 42 40 38 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 8 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 15 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 19 18 13 31 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 9 6 2 8 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 462 435 415 431 452 524 603 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.1 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.4 115.6 116.0 116.4 117.4 118.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -27. -37. -43. -47. -50. -54. -56. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##