* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 09/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 43 55 63 68 70 72 72 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 43 55 63 68 70 72 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 45 52 58 64 71 78 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 11 10 11 8 5 7 5 5 6 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 -5 -5 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 49 46 30 16 360 356 10 352 13 197 184 169 153 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 160 161 160 158 158 156 151 147 145 141 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 82 80 81 84 84 82 83 80 78 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 11 11 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 28 22 21 37 40 45 36 48 41 51 66 200 MB DIV 61 63 55 46 45 68 92 98 72 96 73 75 48 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -12 -8 -3 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 890 896 906 910 920 924 911 917 873 815 820 848 915 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.6 16.9 17.9 18.6 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.6 106.1 106.7 107.2 108.6 110.1 111.6 113.1 114.5 115.8 117.1 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 36 38 41 42 18 19 31 16 14 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 30. 38. 43. 45. 47. 47. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 09/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 09/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##