* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 34 33 34 38 42 47 51 54 56 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 34 33 34 38 42 47 51 54 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 35 34 33 30 31 33 38 45 53 60 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 39 35 29 23 20 12 5 4 9 17 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 2 1 -2 2 -2 -4 -7 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 276 282 289 297 308 345 356 8 250 224 255 254 277 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 126 126 127 130 134 132 128 123 118 114 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 112 112 110 111 114 118 116 112 107 102 97 94 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 11 9 9 8 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 36 40 41 40 42 48 52 49 45 44 39 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -38 -40 -42 -35 -42 6 4 2 12 2 -25 -49 200 MB DIV -20 -14 -6 -21 -36 -6 -5 0 -3 0 -6 -1 -27 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 1 3 2 -7 -6 -4 -4 -5 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 2334 2390 2371 2360 2350 2428 2435 2353 2308 2199 2085 1947 1815 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.7 24.8 26.6 28.0 29.3 30.8 32.5 33.5 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 39.6 40.4 41.2 41.7 42.3 42.9 42.2 40.6 38.7 36.7 34.8 32.7 31.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 5 6 7 9 11 11 12 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 19 20 24 20 12 9 5 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/05/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)