* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 09/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 51 56 60 61 61 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 51 56 60 61 61 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 51 54 55 54 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 4 5 1 8 9 12 13 18 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 5 8 8 10 6 4 7 8 6 9 5 SHEAR DIR 58 57 45 21 32 157 252 241 246 259 242 238 208 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 142 144 143 138 134 134 136 134 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 145 144 146 144 139 134 132 134 131 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 68 67 62 62 57 54 50 49 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 21 30 35 42 35 31 30 22 24 20 20 200 MB DIV 44 43 36 31 22 11 11 0 10 5 28 -3 -4 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -7 -10 -11 -7 -6 -9 -11 -11 -2 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 589 740 885 1011 1142 1407 1691 1947 1734 1539 1392 1260 1126 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 22.1 23.6 25.0 26.3 27.7 30.3 33.0 35.8 38.4 40.9 43.1 45.2 47.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 12 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 9 7 7 10 15 21 18 11 16 26 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 36. 36. 35. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 09/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 09/05/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)